The “rapid count” method used by the electoral institute predicts the outcome of the vote using a sample that is typical of all voters in the nation. According to INE, it has an error margin of +/-1.5%.
MEXICO CITY (AP) — On Sunday, Mexicans will probably pick between an ex-academic who wants to support the populist policies of the current president and an ex-senator and tech entrepreneur who wants to step up the fight against the deadly drug gangs to become the nation’s first female president in history.
Voter turnout for the contest to succeed departing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is close to 100 million. In the largest and most violent elections the country has ever seen, voters will also select representatives for both chambers of Congress, thousands of mayorships, and other local positions. Governors will be chosen in nine of the thirty-two states.
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Many consider the elections as a referendum on López Obrador, the populist who has increased social programs but has failed to lower Mexican cartel violence. Currently, his Morena party has a simple majority of seats in both houses of Congress as well as 23 of the 32 governorships. Reelection of the president is forbidden by the Mexican constitution.
Lots of people showed up early to vote in the city, standing in long lines under sunny skies.
One big goal for the Morena party is to get enough seats in Congress to change the constitution. They want to get rid of certain government agencies they think are too complicated and wasting money. But the opposition, made up of different groups, worries this could hurt Mexico’s democracy.
Both main candidates for president are women, and if either wins, she’ll be the first female president in Mexico’s history. There’s also another candidate from a smaller party, Jorge Álvarez Máynez, but he’s not as popular.
The current mayor of Mexico City, Claudia Sheinbaum, is running with the Morena party. She’s ahead in the polls and says she’ll keep doing what the current president, López Obrador, has been doing. That includes things like giving money to old people and paying young people to learn new skills.
Opposition presidential candidate Xóchitl Gálvez has an inspiring story: from selling snacks on the streets of her impoverished hometown to establishing her own tech companies. She’s part of a coalition of major opposition parties and decided to step away from the Senate recently to focus on criticizing López Obrador’s strategy towards drug cartels. She disagrees with his “hugs not bullets” approach and promises to take a tougher stance against criminals.
The ongoing violence caused by the cartels, along with Mexico’s mediocre economic situation, are the main concerns for voters.
In the outskirts of Mexico City, in the neighborhood of San Andres Totoltepec, electoral officials passed by 34-year-old homemaker Stephania Navarrete. She observed as dozens of cameramen and electoral officials gathered where frontrunner Claudia Sheinbaum was scheduled to cast her vote.
López Obrador says he’s managed to decrease the extremely high homicide rates by 20% since he became president in December 2018. However, this claim is debated because it seems to rely on a questionable interpretation of statistics. In reality, it seems the homicide rate has only decreased by about 4% over six years.
There are around 675,000 Mexicans living abroad who are eligible to vote, but historically, only a small fraction of them actually do. Voting isn’t mandatory in Mexico, and typically, about 60% of eligible voters participate in elections. To put that in perspective, recent U.S. presidential elections have had similar turnout rates, except in 2020 when the race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden boosted turnout to 67%, the highest it’s been in years.
Similar to the intense divisions highlighted by the upcoming rematch between Biden and Trump in November, Sunday’s election in Mexico has shown just how divided public opinion is regarding the country’s path forward. This includes debates about the best security strategies and how to stimulate economic growth.
Aside from the battle for control of Congress, the competition for the leadership of Mexico City — a position now seen as comparable to a governorship — holds significant importance. Sheinbaum is just one in a line of many mayors of Mexico City, including López Obrador, who later ran for president. Governorships in populous states like Veracruz and Jalisco are also attracting attention.
Polling stations opened at 8 a.m. and will close at 6 p.m. in most areas of the country (at 0000 GMT on Monday). The initial preliminary results are anticipated to be available around 9 p.m. (0300 GMT on Monday) after the closing of the last polling stations in different time zones.
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